Where markets meet machine learning
Research notes, model explainers and market analysis from the team building TradePredictor. No hype, no signals-for-sale — just how the maths actually works.
Trading Psychology: The Biases That Cost Money
Most trading mistakes are not analytical failures. They are predictable cognitive patterns that appear reliably under financial pressure.
AI & Machine Learning
Ensemble Models in Trading: Why Three Models Beat One
Combining models is not about averaging away mistakes. It is about buying information from disagreement.
Market Analysis
The Dollar Index (DXY) and Why It Moves Everything
The dollar sits on one side of most global transactions. When it moves, it repositions the price of nearly everything else.
AI & Machine Learning
What Is XGBoost and Why Traders Use It
Gradient-boosted trees quietly outperform neural networks on a lot of financial problems. The reason has more to do with data siz…
Product Updates
Understanding Your Prediction Confidence Score
Every forecast carries a confidence figure. Here is what it is built from and, more importantly, how to act on it.
Product Updates
How TradePredictor Generates a Forecast
A walkthrough of what happens between you selecting an asset and a prediction appearing, including the parts that constrain what …
Trading Education
Expectancy: The Only Metric That Really Matters
One number tells you whether a strategy makes money. Most traders track everything except it.
Trading Education
What a 70% Win Rate Actually Means
Win rate is the most advertised and least informative number in trading. On its own it tells you almost nothing about whether a s…
Trading Strategies
What Is a Breakout Strategy?
Breakout trading sounds simple and produces more false signals than almost any other approach. The filters matter more than the e…
Trading Strategies
Mean Reversion vs Trend Following
Two opposite bets about what price does next. Both work, in different conditions, and each destroys the other's assumptions.